Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science

ABSTRACT

Scientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences.     

The covariance of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process: the stationary case and asymptotics for the ordinary case

In a Poisson process, it is well-known that the forward and backward recurrence times at a given time point t are independent random variables. In a renewal process, although the joint distribution of these quantities is known (asymptotically), it seems that very few results regarding their covariance function exist. In the present paper, we study this covariance and, in particular, we state both necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be positive, zero or negative in terms of reliability classifications and the coefficient of variation of the underlying inter-renewal and the associated equilibrium distribution. Our results apply either for an ordinary renewal process in the steady state or for a stationary process.     

Elementary School-age Children's Attitudes Toward Children in Same-Sex Parent Families

As numbers of families with same-sex parents increase in the United States, children are more likely to encounter diverse family structures. Given that young children can demonstrate in-group bias, prejudicial attitudes, and social exclusion, it is important to understand how children perceive their peers in diverse families. To our knowledge, no studies have assessed elementary-school-age children's attitudes about same-sex parent families. Here, 131 elementary school students (M_age = 7.79 years; 61 girls) viewed images of same-sex (female and male) and other-sex couples with a child and then were asked about their perceptions of these families, particularly the children. Results indicated participants' preferences toward children with other-sex versus same-sex parents. Developmental and practical implications about children's attitudes toward sexual minority parent families are discussed.     

Conditional design of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is often designed assuming the process parameters are known. In practice, the parameters are rarely known and need to be estimated from Phase I samples. Different Phase I samples are used when practitioners construct their own control chart's limits, which leads to the “Phase I between-practitioners” variability in the in-control average run length (ARL) of control charts. The standard deviation of the ARL (SDARL) is a good alternative to quantify this variability in control charts. Based on the SDARL metric, the performance of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters is investigated in this paper. Some recommendations are given based on the SDARL metric. The results show that the EWMA median chart requires a much larger amount of Phase I data in order to reduce the variation in the in-control ARL up to a reasonable level. Due to the limitation of the amount of the Phase I data, the suggested EWMA median chart is designed with the bootstrap method which provides a good balance between the in-control and out-of-control ARL values.     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.     

研究生培养政策70年:演变逻辑与发展走向

新中国成立70年来，我国研究生培养政策经历了初创起步、推进发展、稳步延伸和调适深化四个发展阶段。在演进逻辑上，凸显出国家需求与市场诉求的权衡性、培养目标注重个人成就与社会发展价值的双维导向、培养质量保障体系趋向质量和效益二维共进等特征。研究生培养政策是个动态发展系统。随着时代的发展和变迁，应在政策制定和发展的动力机制、政策目标的价值导向、政策执行的监督评价及保障决策等方面作出适时调整。     

How Moroccan‐Dutch parents learn in communities of practice: Evaluating a bottom‐up parenting programme

Research shows that top‐down‐designed parenting programmes do not always meet the needs of postmigration parents. Bottom‐up programmes by migrant organizations hold a promise to fill this gap; however, research about these programmes and appropriate evaluation methodologies is scarce. Drawing upon Wenger's ( 2010 ) “communities of practice,” this paper explores an alternative perspective on parenting programme evaluation. Findings are presented from a study looking into social learning processes of postmigration parents who participated in a bottom‐up programme about raising teenagers in urban areas. Using an ethnographically inspired method combined with a preprogramme and postprogramme design, 115 Moroccan‐Dutch mothers and fathers from 15 programme groups participated. Results show that the programme provided a social learning space in which parents used themselves as resources to learn collectively about parenting. Moreover, parents consciously engaged in learning interactions across learning spaces stretched into their social networks. These analyses showed how parents' development of “learning citizenship” (Wenger, 2009 ) provides us with insight in collective learning dimensions present in a bottom‐up parenting programme, which is often not included in evaluation studies. Implications for practitioners as facilitators of parents' collective learning are presented.     

Providing a secure base for LGBTQ young people in foster care: The role of foster carers

The experiences and needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans and queer/questioning (LGBTQ) young people in care have been overlooked in England, in both policy and research. This paper reports on findings from the first study of LGBTQ young people in care in England and focuses on the nature of foster carers' experiences and perspectives on caring for LGBTQ young people. Qualitative interviews regarding the fostering role in caring for LGBTQ young people were conducted with a sample of foster carers (n = 26) and analysed thematically. Foster carers described the importance of offering LGBTQ young people not only the nurturing relationships that all children in care need but also availability, sensitivity and acceptance to help young people manage stigma and other challenges associated with minority sexual orientation and gender identity. The Secure Base caregiving model provided a framework for analysing the different dimensions of these relationships. Understanding caregiving roles and relationships for LGBTQ young people in care has important implications for recruiting, training, matching and supporting foster carers to care for LGBTQ young people effectively.     

Creating a positive emotional culture: Effect of internal communication and impact on employee supportive behaviors

The study surveyed 506 employees in the United States to test the effect of internal communication (i.e., corporate-level symmetrical and leadership-level responsive communications) on fostering a positive emotional culture characterized by companionate love, joy, pride, and gratitude. In addition, we tested the interplay between corporate internal communication and a positive emotional culture and its influence on supportive employee behaviors, specifically, organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) and employee advocacy. Results indicated that symmetrical communication and responsive leadership communication cultivated a positive emotional culture in organizations. Such culture also fostered employee OCB and advocacy. Moreover, corporate symmetrical communication directly and positively influenced employee OCB. Finally, this study found that employee OCB positively affected employee advocacy. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings for public relations scholars and practitioners were discussed.